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Impact & Results

Evidence of what changed, measured against what we promised

Every indicator below is drawn from the institutional results framework, verified through routine monitoring, third-party data and independent end-line evaluation. Baselines, targets and actuals are published together — including where we fall short.

0.0M

People reached

Direct beneficiaries of health, WASH and livelihoods programming since 2016.

0

Countries of operation

Active programme, surveillance or technical-assistance presence across Africa.

0+

Youth enterprises incubated

Young people trained, mentored and linked to capital through incubation cohorts.

0.0%

Programme expenditure ratio

Share of total expenditure applied directly to programme delivery in FY2025.

Portfolio analytics

Growth, allocation and geographic distribution

Reach is counted as unique direct beneficiaries under a defined service package, de-duplicated across programmes using household and facility identifiers.

Reach and investment, 2019–2025

Unique direct beneficiaries (millions) against programme investment (USD millions)

Source: AAHRED monitoring system, verified annually

Portfolio allocation by thematic area

Share of FY2025 programme expenditure

Source: FY2025 audited management accounts

Regional distribution of reach

Cumulative direct beneficiaries by region (millions)

Source: country programme returns, December 2025

Operational indicators

Cumulative delivery across the 2016–2025 institutional period

0

Health facilities strengthened

0

People with new safe-water access

0

Peer-reviewed and technical publications

0

Institutional and sovereign partners

0+

Health workers certified

0

National policies informed

Results framework

Outcome indicators: baseline, target, actual

Indicators are reported against the 2021 baseline and the 2025 end-of-strategy target. Status is assigned by the Programme Quality Committee, not by delivery teams.

Outcome indicatorBaseline 2021Target 2025Actual 2025Status
Under-five mortality in programme districts (per 1,000 live births)584239Exceeded
Households with year-round safe water access41%70%73%Exceeded
Facilities reporting complete surveillance data weekly52%90%88%On track
Incubated enterprises trading after 24 months60%68%Exceeded
Women in enterprise leadership positions22%45%44%On track
Median outbreak detection-to-notification interval (days)9.13.03.4On track
Diarrhoeal disease incidence in WASH catchments24.6%12.0%11.2%Exceeded
Programme districts with costed health investment plans62421On track

Indicator definitions, data sources and calculation methods are published in the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning handbook available in the Knowledge Hub.

Global goals

Contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals

AAHRED reports against ten SDGs, with indicator-level mapping to national development plans and donor results frameworks.

1

No Poverty

Enterprise incubation and financial access for excluded households.

2

Zero Hunger

Nutrition surveillance and income-led dietary diversification.

3

Good Health & Well-being

Health systems strengthening, surveillance and service delivery.

5

Gender Equality

Women's economic empowerment and leadership pathways.

6

Clean Water & Sanitation

Community water infrastructure and sanitation systems.

8

Decent Work & Growth

Youth employment, SME support and market linkage.

10

Reduced Inequalities

Programming in fragile, pastoralist and informal settlements.

13

Climate Action

Climate-resilient livelihoods and drought response.

16

Peace, Justice & Institutions

Regulatory harmonisation and public accountability.

17

Partnerships for the Goals

Sovereign, multilateral and academic co-delivery.

Independent verification

Every headline claim traces back to a published method

Programme data is triangulated against ministry health information systems, national household surveys and independent end-line evaluations commissioned by the Programme Quality Committee. Evaluation terms of reference, datasets and negative findings are released alongside positive results.

External end-line evaluations on all portfolios above USD 1m
Pre-registered protocols and pre-analysis plans for research
Anonymised datasets released under an open data licence
Annual public reporting of shortfalls and corrective action

Tripartite operating model

Think tank, implementation partner and governance/MEL advisory in one institution

Evidence generation translates into execution and delivery, which is in turn evaluated and governed — closing the loop between research, policy design, operations and accountability. Each arm is independently staffed and independently reported, so evaluation is never marked by the team that delivered the work.

Pillar 1

Think Tank & Applied Research Arm

Evidence generation, policy analytics and horizon scanning

  • Translational policy research turning epidemiological, macroeconomic and spatial data into legislative roadmaps and ministerial briefs.
  • Econometric and micro-simulation modelling: cost-benefit analysis, UHC fiscal space assessment and predictive shock modelling.
  • Policy harmonisation with AU Agenda 2063, the Abuja Declaration, the Maputo Plan of Action and Africa CDC frameworks.
  • Ethics, bioethics and data sovereignty protocols safeguarding indigenous health data, genomic assets and vulnerable population registries.
Core outputs
Ministerial briefs, costed policy options, national investment cases, peer-reviewed papers and open data dictionaries.
Methods & instruments
Micro-simulation, spatial econometrics, cost-benefit and fiscal-space modelling, horizon scanning and political-economy analysis.
Delivery capacity
42 researchers, economists and modellers across epidemiology, health financing, GIS and bioethics.
Pillar 2

Implementation & Programme Delivery Arm

Technical assistance, direct execution and capacity building

  • Direct programme rollout and pilot scalability across maternal-child health, cross-border surveillance, nutrition hubs and safety nets.
  • Embedded technical assistance seconding senior advisors, health economists and data architects into line ministries and RECs.
  • SOP development codifying clinical pathways, MISP emergency response and multi-agency coordination manuals.
  • Institutional capacity building for decentralised civil servants, local councils and community health networks.
Core outputs
Programme designs, SOP libraries, service-delivery pilots, supply and referral pathways, trained frontline cadres.
Methods & instruments
Embedded technical assistance, results-based grant execution, MISP emergency response, sub-award management and procurement support.
Delivery capacity
Field teams across 14 countries with surge deployment inside 72 hours for outbreak and displacement events.
Pillar 3

MEL & Governance Advisory

Accountability, systems strengthening and oversight

  • Third-party monitoring and independent verification of multilateral programmes in high-risk and cross-border corridors.
  • Impact evaluation using RCTs, difference-in-differences and mixed-method process evaluation to measure attribution and ROI.
  • Digital MEL infrastructure: mobile-first pipelines, geospatial dashboards and automated anomaly detection against data falsification.
  • Public financial management and governance audits covering procurement integrity and expenditure tracking.
Core outputs
Independent verification reports, impact evaluations, governance and PFM audits, live MEL dashboards.
Methods & instruments
RCTs, difference-in-differences, mixed-method process evaluation, third-party monitoring and anomaly detection analytics.
Delivery capacity
Evaluation unit operating to OECD-DAC criteria with a firewalled reporting line to the Board Audit Committee.

Programmatic lifecycle

01

Diagnose

Burden, equity and fiscal-space diagnostics using national datasets, geospatial layers and community consultation.

02

Design

Costed intervention design with theory of change, indicator framework and explicit assumptions on attribution.

03

Pilot

Controlled implementation with embedded measurement to test feasibility, unit economics and delivery risk.

04

Scale

Government-owned scale-up with SOPs, workforce training, procurement pathways and digital reporting rails.

05

Evaluate

Independent evaluation, public financial audit and open publication of results — including null findings.

Engagement matrix

Multi-level institutional engagement

Who AAHRED works with at each level of governance, what it delivers there, the legal instruments used and the cadence of reporting back to partners.

Governance levelCore institutional clientsKey service offeringsEngagement instrumentsReporting cadence
Continental & MultilateralAfrican Union, Africa CDC, UNECA, WHO AFRO, World Bank, Global FundStrategic framework development, regional public goods governance, cross-border treaty alignment and macro-level grant evaluation.Framework agreements, technical secretariats, joint working groupsMulti-year (3–5 yrs)
Regional Economic CommunitiesEAC, IGAD, ECOWAS, SADCSurveillance harmonisation, cross-border migration protocols and trade-related biosecurity standards.Protocol harmonisation compacts, corridor surveillance MOUsAnnual review cycles
National GovernmentsMinistries of Health, Finance, Gender/Social Protection and AgriculturePolicy formulation, UHC benefit package design, fiscal space analysis and embedded ministerial technical assistance.Embedded advisory placements, costed national plans, MoUsBudget-cycle aligned
Sub-National & Local GovernanceCounty and district health directorates, municipalities, local councilsDecentralised planning, budget execution tracking, frontline worker training and community engagement architecture.County work plans, community compacts, frontline training grantsQuarterly

Closing the policy-to-execution gap

Unlike academic think tanks producing non-operational papers, or NGOs executing without rigorous evaluation, AAHRED unifies theoretical rigour with frontline delivery.

End-to-end programmatic lifecycle

Empirical research → policy drafting → pilot implementation → nationwide scale-up → independent impact evaluation.

South-led contextualisation

Endogenous African data models accounting for informal economies, pastoralist mobility and customary governance systems overlooked by external consultancies.

Evaluation standards

OECD-DAC criteria

Financial reporting

IFRS + 2 CFR 200

Data protection

GDPR / national DPAs

Safeguarding

PSEAH policy, independent channel